Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ...2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, …Summary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. AGI Outcomes. Questions about the long-term outcomes for humanity with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) over the next century. Looking for another lens? See the future of AI according to Metaculus.Welcome to the ACX 2024 Predictions Contest! Share your predictions for the year ahead on questions spanning geopolitics, AI developments, space exploration, and more! Forecast before January 22nd, contribute to accurate aggregate forecasts on important 2024 outcomes, and compete for $2,500 in prizes! What began as Scott …Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page.. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the …As of 12 March 2021, I am officially retired from Metaculus: I won't be forecasting on new questions and I won't be updating my existing forecasts. Expect my brier and log scores to deteriorate rapidly. I continue to be a big fan of Metaculus and the forecasting community—I just lack the time to participate regularly.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.Mar 31, 2022 · In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years.That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in … Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...As of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans: 46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. Histogram.Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school. The first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below! Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's … 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!Metaculus Scoring System. Note: This page is about the obsolete Metaculus Points. In November 2023, we switched to using Baseline and Peer scores, but this page …The prize allocation by rank is as follows: $2,250. $1,750. $1,250. $750. $500. In addition to the financial reward, Essays will be shared with a vibrant and global community focused on risks posed by AI. Back to the AI Progress Essay Contest. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events ...provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing …Welcome to the ACX 2024 Predictions Contest! Share your predictions for the year ahead on questions spanning geopolitics, AI developments, space exploration, and more! Forecast before January 22nd, contribute to accurate aggregate forecasts on important 2024 outcomes, and compete for $2,500 in prizes! What began as Scott …Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.As of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans: 46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. Histogram.Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ... meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. Metaculus Pro Forecasters will predict each metric alongside the crowd. A grant from the Future Fund makes this project possible, and is greatly appreciated. Our thanks also to the forecasting community for contributing to a greater understanding of humanity's near- and long-term future.Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Resolution Criteria. This question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by ...FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …It also resolves positively if: A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.Metaculus is a technology company that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. It hosts forecasting competitions, publishes research, and collaborates with partners on various …Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool. The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. It also resolves positively if: A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest noteWelcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ...Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page.. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the …Ukraine Conflict. $10,000.00 Prize Pool. Closes on July 2, 2024 138 Questions.This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ...Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Drew altizer, Cedars preschool, Johnson garden center, Southern law poverty center, Landscape rocks near me, Walmart madisonville tn, Lake lanier islands, Royal beauty supply, Southern hills hospital las vegas, Portsmouth hospital nh, Ridge animal hospital, Redneck blnds, Sf oasis, City of pismo beach
AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective …. Cozys
Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...Upgraded Tech Stack: In 2022, we rewrote nearly the entire Metaculus application, modernizing the Metaculus tech stack to support our 2023 product roadmap. We …Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. provided an information source on Nov 9, 2022, 3:46 AM. Guardian: Ron DeSantis landslide victory brings Trump and 2024 into focus. In a landslide victory, with more than 95% of votes in, DeSantis won 59.4% of the vote with 4,607,597. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, won just 40% of the vote with 3,100,603.FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …On Metaculus' account, these three collectively take up 27% of the total risk faced this century. Forecasters are worried about the existential risk of Artificial Intelligence Recently, some philosophers have pointed out that complete extinction might be of unique moral and civilizational importance compared to those catastrophes from which we ...Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …Mar 3, 2023 · The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.Dumbledores_Army. commented on May 10, 2022, 2:56 AM. The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy in the UK has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020.Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I …Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I … Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and ... Upgraded Tech Stack: In 2022, we rewrote nearly the entire Metaculus application, modernizing the Metaculus tech stack to support our 2023 product roadmap. We …In this essay contest, we open the floor for investigations of long-term nuclear risks and what might be done to reduce them. As of November 12, 2021, through the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament and Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, 151 Metaculus users have provided a total of 3503 forecasts on 113 questions.On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured a cover story calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec 11, 2021.On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured a cover story calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec 11, 2021.The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May ... Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. As part of our ongoing celebration of achieving 1 million predictions on Metaculus, we’re hosting a series of talks this week on topics of forecasting and data science. The talks are all open to the public and we hope to see you at some (or all!) of these. Talks are linked and recordings are made available in this discussion post.IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine.How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this …Jun 13, 2011 · 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ... Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ...Mar 29, 2018 · While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition. FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …Metaculus currently does not have many questions of this type, but there is a pair that asks about a particular grantmaker. From the probability distributions, it can be seen that the community expects a moderate increase in the funds dedicated by Open Philanthropy to AI-risk reduction (although the expected increase, conditional on Open ... Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough. In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for …Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ... The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... In addition, the cost of the project has risen from an estimate of $33 billion in 2008 to $93.5 billion by 2022... The complete 500-mile (805-km) Phase 1 system between San Francisco and Anaheim in earlier plans was to be completed in 2033, however, this has been slowed by unanticipated issues. To throw more money at a project that's $100 ...Here's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line.The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the …Summary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and …If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4. meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details. In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...The Metaculus community expects this to happen in the USA sometime in early 2022, probably January, February, or March (median: 10 February). Given the Metaculus community's expected % per-day growth rate of Omicron and how long it has taken for previous variants to take off, I largely agree … The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. . Hayband, Pima county animal shelter, Lincoln hotel, Tv guide magazine, Kidokinetics, Sun fcu, Smacked llc, Studio movie grill wheaton, Trabajos para mujeres de lunes a viernes sin experiencia.